Prediction markets
27 stories tagged #prediction-markets — what happened and what the prediction markets made of it.
House Votes to End Iran War, 7 Republicans Break Ranks
Seven House Republicans just voted to pull US troops out of Iran within a month.
Duterte Appears in ICC Courtroom for First Time
First sitting-era leader to appear before the ICC—Duterte walked into the courtroom.
Sweden Election: Centre-Left Wins by One Seat
Sweden's opposition won by exactly one seat — the thinnest possible majority.
Judge Blocks Trump Foreign Student & Journalist Visa Limits
2.1 million people on student and exchange visas kept their status one day before the cap.
GOP Convention: Calls to Shoot Democrats Unchallenged
The Guardian says a call to shoot Democrats drew no correction at a GOP convention.
Lithuania Drone Sighting Was a Flock of Birds, NATO Jets
NATO scrambled jets over Lithuania and the drone turned out to be birds.
Chile Nursing Home Fire Kills 16 Residents
Sixteen people died in one building, and nobody has named it yet.
Tesla Signals October 1 for Long-Delayed Roadster
The Roadster Tesla promised in 2017 finally has a date: October 1, eight years later.
Trump Promises to Lift Tariffs on Irish Whiskey
Trump just promised to drop tariffs on Irish whiskey—one of his only rollbacks.
BRICS Agrees Joint Declaration, Reuters Sources Say
Reuters says BRICS agreed a declaration — but nobody has seen the text.
Dolly Parton International Airport: Nashville Board Votes
Every member of Nashville's airport board voted yes on renaming it for Dolly Parton.
Sabalenka v Rybakina: US Open Final Live Coverage
The source file on this final contained no tennis in it — just page code.
OpenAI IPO Not in 2026, Sam Altman Says
Altman ruled out a 2026 OpenAI IPO — and wouldn't say 2027 either.
Trump Demands 'Colossus' Washington Statue at Smithsonian
Trump wants a Washington 'Colossus' inside the Smithsonian. Nobody has said yes.
NFL Week 1 Predictions: ESPN's 15 Picks and Upsets
ESPN picks the Broncos to upset the Chiefs in Mahomes' first start since knee surgery.
Philippines Ferry Fire Death Toll Rises to 76
The toll hit 76 on day one of coverage — which means it isn't done climbing.
Yemen: 50,000 Flee as Houthis Advance on Red Sea Coast
Nearly 50,000 Yemenis fled the coast, and US outlets ran about 7 stories on it.
Trump Says Irish Unification Would Be 'Fantastic'
Trump picked a side on a border the U.S. spent decades refusing to pick a side on.
French Train Derailment: Officials Probe 'Malicious Act'
France is probing a train derailment as possible sabotage — and won't say where it happened.
Iraq Closes Shalamcheh Border Crossing With Iran
Iraq shut its Shalamcheh crossing with Iran and has not said why.
Israel Destroys Underground Hezbollah Base in Lebanon
Israel's target wasn't a rocket launcher — it was a base dug under southern Lebanon.
SEC Proposes New Rules for Crypto Assets
The SEC proposed Regulation Crypto Assets, offering two exemptions for token sales and a pathway for tokens to exit securities treatment.
China Plans Naval Drill with Indonesia East of Taiwan
Taiwan condemns planned Chinese-Indonesian naval exercise to its east as dangerous. What the drill location means for conflict odds.
Trump Approval Falls to 33% — Lowest of His Presidency
President Trump's approval rating dropped to 33% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll, the lowest of his presidency, as 80% of Americans expect prolonged Iran conflict.
Jane Street Losses and Prediction Market Liquidity Pricing
A reported $15 billion loss at a major trading firm highlights how capital shocks widen spreads and distort implied probabilities in prediction markets.
Pricing Iran Rhetoric: How Gas Warnings Move Markets
Donald Trump's linkage of Iran escalation to higher gas prices signals sentiment shifts. Here is how prediction markets and energy futures price this.