#prediction-markets
SEC Proposes New Rules for Crypto Assets
The SEC proposed Regulation Crypto Assets, offering two exemptions for token sales and a pathway for tokens to exit securities treatment.
China Plans Naval Drill with Indonesia East of Taiwan
Taiwan condemns planned Chinese-Indonesian naval exercise to its east as dangerous. What the drill location means for conflict odds.
Trump Approval Falls to 33% — Lowest of His Presidency
President Trump's approval rating dropped to 33% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll, the lowest of his presidency, as 80% of Americans expect prolonged Iran conflict.
Jane Street Losses and Prediction Market Liquidity Pricing
A reported $15 billion loss at a major trading firm highlights how capital shocks widen spreads and distort implied probabilities in prediction markets.
Pricing Iran Rhetoric: How Gas Warnings Move Markets
Donald Trump's linkage of Iran escalation to higher gas prices signals sentiment shifts. Here is how prediction markets and energy futures price this.
Lindell Loses Minnesota Primary: Market Pricing Shifts
Mike Lindell’s Minnesota primary loss forces prediction markets to reprice the Trump endorsement premium. See how contracts adjust to primary upsets.