Risk disclosure

Trading on prediction markets involves substantial risk. Contracts can and do go to zero. Before using FluxrBot, understand the following:

Capital risk

Any funds you allocate to trading on Polymarket or Kalshi can be lost in full. Set position caps and trade only with money you can afford to lose.

No performance guarantee

FluxrBot automates the detection and execution of trades. It does not guarantee profit, and past behavior of any strategy — automated or manual — does not predict future results. Any figures shown on this site describe system mechanics (latency, source counts), not promised returns.

Automation risk

Automated systems act faster than humans can intervene. Hard limits you set (position size, daily volume, excluded markets) are enforced before every order, but market outcomes within those limits remain uncertain.

What the engine refuses on its own

Beyond the limits you set, the engine applies account-level rules before every order. They exist to bound how wrong a single mistake can go — they do not make any strategy profitable, and none of them is a promise about returns.

• Position cap. No single position exceeds 10% of the account. A trade sized above the cap is cut down to it, not silently placed.
• Daily deployment cap. A fixed dollar amount per day, reset at midnight rather than on a rolling window, so the limit is legible.
• Total exposure cap. At most half the account may sit in open positions and resting orders at once, measured against the current balance — an account that has lost money also risks less.
• One position per question. Mutually exclusive contracts on the same event count as one bet, however many contracts it is spread across.
• Concentration limits. A cap on how much rides on any one category, and on how many open positions may share a named subject. This is a deliberately crude proxy for correlation rather than a correlation model: published work finds most model-inferred dependencies between prediction markets do not hold at execution, and a rule nobody can explain is a rule nobody can fix.
• Strategy-level ceilings. Individual strategies carry their own caps on open positions where their errors are known to be correlated — a weather-forecast error hits every city on the same day — and their own disagreement ceilings: when a strategy's estimate differs from the market by more than its ceiling, that gap is treated as evidence against the strategy, not as an opportunity.
• Daily loss stop. When realized losses in a day reach the daily stop, the account stops opening new positions until the next day. It has fired in live paper trading and worked as written.
• Drawdown stop. When the account falls far enough below its own peak — and only after enough closed trades for that to mean anything rather than an ordinary losing streak — it stops entirely and has to be restarted by a human. Waiting a day and resuming with the same fault is not recovery.

A stop blocks opening, never closing: positions already held settle as usual. Freezing a loss instead of realizing it would be a worse outcome, not a safer one.

Regulatory note

Access to prediction markets differs by jurisdiction. It is your responsibility to ensure that using Polymarket or Kalshi is lawful where you live.