Changelog

App builds are numbered; engine updates ship continuously and are marked live on the engine — they reach every user immediately, no download needed.

v1.0.5 · 2026-09-13 — released

• Check screen: paste a Kalshi or Polymarket link (or a Kalshi ticker) before you trade — live order book on $50 each side, taker vs maker fee, breakeven, base rates from our own settled outcomes, linked news with the model's read, engine decisions on the contract, price moves, the same contract on the other venue, resolution-rule flags and plain warnings. No recommendation: the model does not beat the price, and the screen says so
• Watchlist screen: the contracts where your money is — price, 24h move, stories in the last day, latest model verdict marked with or against your side; add from Check or by link
• First version delivered over the air: 1.0.4 installs it by itself when automatic updates are on, or by the Update now button

v1.0.4 · 2026-09-13 — released

• Over-the-air updates: builds are signed on our server, the app verifies the signature and installs updates itself — a checkbox at activation (on by default) and in Settings → Updates controls it; with it off you get a banner and an Update now button that installs from inside the app
• Email on every version: when a version is published and, if it installed on its own, when it did
• Heartbeat reports the auto-update choice and machine name so the email can say what will happen on your machine
• This version has to be installed by hand once — 1.0.3 and older cannot update themselves

Engine · 2026-09-13 — live on the engine

• Measured answer to the main question: on 2,847 settled outcomes the model's Brier score is 0.145 vs 0.145 for the market price — it does not beat the price. This is now published as machine-readable engine truth (/api/truth) and drives every number on the site
• Pre-trade check: paste a Kalshi or Polymarket link and get the live order book on $50 each side, taker vs maker fee, breakeven, base rates from our own settled outcomes, linked news with verdicts, resolution-rule flags and plain warnings
• Watchlist: follow the contracts you hold; news the model reads as moving the outcome arrives in Telegram marked with or against your position (/watch, /list, /check in the bot)
• Polymarket taker fees modelled by category (4–7% × p × (1−p), makers free) — the engine treated Polymarket as fee-free since before the March 2026 change, overstating paper results
• no-bias strategy switched off: 1 hit in 6, the measured YES-overpricing did not hold out of sample; weather's +56% is one +$95 trade on a 12-trade sample and is reported as such
• Silent-failure watchdog: the model gateway ran out of balance on 22.08 and nobody noticed for three weeks (zero verdicts, timers green). The engine now alerts the operator within three hours of silence
• Every app release is now signed on the server, published as a GitHub Release and announced by email to activated users

v1.0.3 · 2026-08-12 — released

• Fixed: external links open again — the update button, Telegram connect and every outbound link silently did nothing in 1.0.0–1.0.2 (a missing URL permission in the desktop shell)
• If opening the browser ever fails, the app now copies the link and shows it to you instead of staying silent
• New engine refusal reasons translated in all four languages: news already priced in, forecast disagreeing with the market too much, price-band statistics still thin, strategy position limits

Engine · 2026-08-12 — live on the engine

• New contrarian strategy: fades the crowd's systematic overpricing of YES, with the edge measured on our own settled outcomes and re-measured every run
• Arbitrage baskets are now held to resolution — the forced 24-hour exit was paying the spread twice and turning locked profit into noise
• High-confidence verdicts (0.70+) are held to resolution: measured hit rate 72–94% on settled outcomes
• News-chasing gate: if the market already moved 5¢+ toward the verdict since publication, the engine passes — late entries were buying the crowd's reversal
• Weather strategy learned its lesson: a forecast disagreeing with the market by 22¢+ is now treated as our error, not an opportunity; two open positions max
• Probability calibration crossed 300 settled outcomes and is now applied — measured shift ceiling replaces the hand-picked constant, Kelly sizing engaged

v1.0.2 · 2026-08-08 — released

• Fixed: every screen can now scroll — a layout bug clipped all lists to one viewport
• Paper balance now says what it is made of: total across per-strategy accounts, with the starting sum shown
• Refusal reasons in the daily summary group by cause instead of splitting one cause across price variants
• Venues screen: what is read live today, how Kalshi will connect, why Polymarket stays signal-only
• Window title no longer carries a stale version string

v1.0.1 · 2026-08-08 — released

• Updates screen: what you have, what is available, and the full version history with descriptions
• Strategies screen: four strategies, each scored on its own separate paper account
• The engine now argues against its own trades — the objection is shown on every signal, whether or not it stopped the trade
• Two independent probability estimates per trade; if they disagree on direction, the engine passes
• Account-level risk stops: drawdown halt, daily loss stop, exposure and concentration ceilings — visible in the app when they fire
• Risk appetite setting: choose how bold a feed you want, from confident-only to exploratory
• Trial is now 3 days from activation
• Refusal reasons translated in all four app languages

Engine · 2026-08-05 — live on the engine

• Streaming sources: Reuters and AP now arrive first-hand within seconds of publication
• New forecast-vs-market strategy prices daily temperature contracts from a three-model weather ensemble
• Every losing settled trade gets an automated post-mortem naming the cause
• Release calendar loaded with real CPI, jobs, GDP and PCE dates — the engine polls faster around each release

Engine · 2026-08-04 — live on the engine

• Event-driven pipeline: decisions now happen seconds after news arrives instead of on a 15-minute cycle
• Group and cross-venue arbitrage strategies added, with basket-level execution checks
• Limit orders placed automatically when the spread eats the edge

v1.0.0 · 2026-07-31 — released

• First Windows build: activation, signals feed with trades and logged refusals, journal, settings, four languages
• Telegram notifications for signals and closed positions
• Paper trading engine live on 28 news sources