Analysis
Slower reads: how a story moves the odds on Polymarket and Kalshi, what the crowd got right, and what it missed.
AfD Protests in Germany: Tens of Thousands March
Tens of thousands marched against the AfD. Odds boards price votes, not crowds.
Tariffs Won't Fund Trump's $5,000 Dividend
Trump's own commerce secretary says taxes won't cover the $5,000 dividend.
A Record-Slow Atlantic Hurricane Season, Blamed on El Niño
AP calls this Atlantic hurricane season record-slow. The reason is in the Pacific.
NFL Week 1 Predictions: ESPN's 15 Picks and Upsets
ESPN picks the Broncos to upset the Chiefs in Mahomes' first start since knee surgery.
Anthropic Says Claude Used for Weapons, Spying, Cyber Ops
Anthropic says Claude was used for weapons and spying — nobody has said how many times.
Trump Claims Strait of Hormuz: Energy Market Repricing
Trump says he will declare the Strait of Hormuz U.S. territory. How territorial claims shift energy-disruption contracts and conflict odds.
Pricing Iran Rhetoric: How Gas Warnings Move Markets
Donald Trump's linkage of Iran escalation to higher gas prices signals sentiment shifts. Here is how prediction markets and energy futures price this.
Maine Senate: The Gender Gap and the Odds
NPR says women voters could decide Maine's Senate race. Here is what a demographic story does — and does not do — to prediction-market prices on the contest.
Taiwan War Games and How Invasion Contracts Price
Taiwan is rehearsing repelling a Chinese assault and slowing mobile internet. Why announced drills barely move China-Taiwan event contracts, and what would.
Democrats Win Texas? One Quote, No Live Prices
A former GOP strategist says "this might be the year" Democrats win Texas. Here's what a prediction market would need to see before a Texas contract moves.
Iran, the Gulf, and What Escalation Contracts Pay On
The WSJ says Iran sees an opening to push US forces out of the Gulf. Here is how that headline does — and does not — touch US-Iran escalation contracts.
Mississippi and What Senate Control Markets Price
Scott Colom says he can flip Mississippi. Here's how a widening Senate map feeds into majority contracts on Polymarket and Kalshi — and where the.
Hormuz Coordinates Deal: What Contracts Actually Pay On
Iran says it reached an understanding with Oman on a Hormuz shipping route. Here is why event contracts on a strait reopening should barely move on that.
Reading Incursion Odds After the NATO Intel Leak
A leaked U.S. intelligence assessment says Putin could test NATO with a limited incursion. How event contracts price that, and why resolution language.
Iran Strike Odds: Trading Escalation on Polymarket
Reuters reports Iran threatened to hit Gulf states if the US strikes again. What that conditional threat does to escalation event contracts, and why.
Tennessee Primary Night: The Prediction-Market Guide to Tonight's Results
Tennessee picks gubernatorial nominees and candidates in nine redrawn districts. How to price nominee-versus-general contracts on a night like this one.
Collins Defects on Blanche: Reading a Confirmation Market One Vote at a Time
Susan Collins will vote against Todd Blanche for attorney general, leaving Republicans one defection from failure. How confirmation markets price a whip count.
Michigan's Upset and the Limits of Election Market Wisdom
Abdul El-Sayed's projected Michigan primary win jolted Democrats. What a favorite-beating primary result says about how event contracts price low-turnout races.
Trump Threatens Iran Again: How Prediction Markets Price a Hormuz Deal
Trump says Iran will be hit very hard unless the Strait of Hormuz reopens. Brent fell below $80 — what it means for event contract pricing.
Ukraine Ceasefire Odds After the Deadliest Kyiv Strike of the Year
A Russian missile and drone attack killed at least 21 in Ukraine. Here is how escalation news like this feeds into Polymarket ceasefire-by-date contracts.