Markets
Notes on specific contracts: how they are priced, how deep the book is, how they resolve, and the traps buried in the rules of each one.
GM Misses Hybrid Sales Surge as Rivals Gain Share
Hybrid sales are climbing fast—and GM has almost nothing to sell.
US 10-Year Yields Hit 5%, Highest Since 2023
10-year Treasury yields just hit 5% for the first time since 2023.
Saudi Pipeline Outage Threatens 4% Global Oil Supply
A single pipeline failure just erased 4% of the world's oil supply overnight.
Goldman, JPMorgan Expect September Fed Rate Hike
Goldman and JPMorgan just flipped their Fed calls—September rate hike now expected.
Fed, Bank of England and Bank of Japan Rate Decisions
Bessent on the BoJ: "I have asymmetric information. I am the house now."
Unitree Robotics Soars 542% in Shanghai IPO Debut
Unitree Robotics closed 460% above its IPO price Wednesday, marking the first humanoid robot maker to debut on mainland China's exchange.
Oil Prices Jump Above $90 as US-Iran Ceasefire Expires
Brent crude rises above $90 after the US-Iran memorandum of understanding expires and Trump threatens Oman over Strait of Hormuz talks.
Ohio Senate Polls Tighten: Brown and Acton Lead
The Hill reports slim Democratic leads in two Ohio Senate races. How tight polling moves Senate control contracts on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Jane Street Losses and Prediction Market Liquidity Pricing
A reported $15 billion loss at a major trading firm highlights how capital shocks widen spreads and distort implied probabilities in prediction markets.
Lindell Loses Minnesota Primary: Market Pricing Shifts
Mike Lindell’s Minnesota primary loss forces prediction markets to reprice the Trump endorsement premium. See how contracts adjust to primary upsets.