Sports prediction markets
Kalshi's dominant category — roughly 80% of its volume. Compared to a sportsbook, prices here are probabilities without a bookmaker margin baked in.
Updated Nov 10, 12:07 PM UTC · 24 live contracts in this category
Biggest 24-hour moves
Sorted by absolute change in implied probability. A large move means information arrived — the open question is whether the book overshot.
| Market | Venue | YES | 24h | 24h vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mauricio Pochettino: Out from USMNT — Mauricio Pochettino out before 2030 World Cup | Kalshi | 69¢ | +33.0 | $168 |
| Orleans: Dalibor Svrcina vs Vitaliy Sachko | Polymarket | 41¢ | -21.5 | $227k |
| Orleans: Otto Virtanen vs Dino Prizmic | Polymarket | 52¢ | +5.0 | $144k |
| Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs Bilibili Gaming (+1.5) | Polymarket | 43¢ | +1.0 | $144k |
Deepest books right now
Ranked by 24h notional volume. Polymarket reports dollars and Kalshi reports contracts, so we convert Kalshi to notional — the two venues' sampling still differs, so read this as "where the action is," not a precise league table.
Reading these numbers
Each price is a probability. A contract at 62¢ means the market puts the odds at 62% — and the gap between that number and the truth is the only thing worth trading. The field guide covers the three ways that price drifts away from real probability.
Before acting: payout and fees, position size, cross-venue gaps. Unfamiliar terms are in the glossary.
Snapshot from the venues' public APIs at build time, not a live feed. Coverage is a sample of open markets. Nothing here is a recommendation to trade — see the risk disclosure.