Fed, inflation and macro markets
Rate decisions, CPI prints, GDP and unemployment. These are the markets where news arrives on a schedule — and where a scheduled release still moves prices in milliseconds.
Updated Sep 14, 12:25 AM UTC · 11 live contracts in this category
Biggest 24-hour moves
Sorted by absolute change in implied probability. A large move means information arrived — the open question is whether the book overshot.
| Market | Venue | YES | 24h | 24h vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed funds rate at end of 2027 — Above 4.00% | Kalshi | 69¢ | +16.0 | $2k |
| Recession in 2027? — Yes | Kalshi | 23¢ | +2.0 | $1k |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | Polymarket | 79¢ | -1.0 | $1.6M |
Deepest books right now
Ranked by 24h notional volume. Polymarket reports dollars and Kalshi reports contracts, so we convert Kalshi to notional — the two venues' sampling still differs, so read this as "where the action is," not a precise league table.
| Market | Venue | YES | 24h vol | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | Polymarket | 21¢ | $2.2M | Sep 16 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | Polymarket | 79¢ | $1.6M | Sep 16 |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | Polymarket | 87¢ | $85k | Dec 9 |
| Fed funds rate at end of 2027 — Above 4.00% | Kalshi | 69¢ | $2k | Jan 1 |
| Recession in 2027? — Yes | Kalshi | 23¢ | $1k | Jan 31 |
| US headline CPI inflation in December 2027 — Above 2.5% | Kalshi | 77¢ | $43 | Feb 1 |
| US unemployment rate at year-end 2030 — Above 10.0% | Kalshi | 10¢ | $20 | Jan 10 |
| Fed funds rate at end of 2027 — Above 3.75% | Kalshi | 70¢ | $8 | Jan 1 |
| Fed funds rate at end of 2027 — Above 4.25% | Kalshi | 43¢ | $2 | Jan 1 |
| US headline CPI inflation in December 2027 — Above 1.0% | Kalshi | 96¢ | $1 | Feb 1 |
| US headline CPI inflation in December 2027 — Above 3.0% | Kalshi | 27¢ | $0 | Feb 1 |
Reading these numbers
Each price is a probability. A contract at 62¢ means the market puts the odds at 62% — and the gap between that number and the truth is the only thing worth trading. The field guide covers the three ways that price drifts away from real probability.
Before acting: payout and fees, position size, cross-venue gaps. Unfamiliar terms are in the glossary.
Snapshot from the venues' public APIs at build time, not a live feed. Coverage is a sample of open markets. Nothing here is a recommendation to trade — see the risk disclosure.