Political prediction markets
Elections, nominations, conflicts and policy decisions. Polymarket carries roughly 97% of political volume, so most of what's below sits there.
Updated Nov 10, 12:07 PM UTC · 33 live contracts in this category
Biggest 24-hour moves
Sorted by absolute change in implied probability. A large move means information arrived — the open question is whether the book overshot.
| Market | Venue | YES | 24h | 24h vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Polymarket | 69¢ | +8.0 | $105k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | Polymarket | 86¢ | +7.0 | $128k |
| Which party will win the next UK general election? — Labour party | Kalshi | 39¢ | -4.0 | $396 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Polymarket | 96¢ | +3.4 | $253k |
| Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader? | Polymarket | 91¢ | -2.5 | $167k |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Polymarket | 19¢ | +1.3 | $113k |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Polymarket | 23¢ | -1.1 | $123k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Polymarket | 9¢ | -1.0 | $213k |
Deepest books right now
Ranked by 24h notional volume. Polymarket reports dollars and Kalshi reports contracts, so we convert Kalshi to notional — the two venues' sampling still differs, so read this as "where the action is," not a precise league table.
Reading these numbers
Each price is a probability. A contract at 62¢ means the market puts the odds at 62% — and the gap between that number and the truth is the only thing worth trading. The field guide covers the three ways that price drifts away from real probability.
Before acting: payout and fees, position size, cross-venue gaps. Unfamiliar terms are in the glossary.
Snapshot from the venues' public APIs at build time, not a live feed. Coverage is a sample of open markets. Nothing here is a recommendation to trade — see the risk disclosure.