#iran

Aug 19, 2026

Trump Says No Iran Talks; Hormuz Status Disputed

President Trump ruled out Iran talks on Tuesday. Tehran says Hormuz is shut; Trump says it's open. The conflicting claims leave oil markets pricing.

Aug 18, 2026

Oil Prices Jump Above $90 as US-Iran Ceasefire Expires

Brent crude rises above $90 after the US-Iran memorandum of understanding expires and Trump threatens Oman over Strait of Hormuz talks.

Aug 16, 2026

Trump Claims Strait of Hormuz: Energy Market Repricing

Trump says he will declare the Strait of Hormuz U.S. territory. How territorial claims shift energy-disruption contracts and conflict odds.

Aug 15, 2026

Pricing Iran Rhetoric: How Gas Warnings Move Markets

Donald Trump's linkage of Iran escalation to higher gas prices signals sentiment shifts. Here is how prediction markets and energy futures price this.

Aug 8, 2026

Iran, the Gulf, and What Escalation Contracts Pay On

The WSJ says Iran sees an opening to push US forces out of the Gulf. Here is how that headline does — and does not — touch US-Iran escalation contracts.

Aug 7, 2026

Hormuz Coordinates Deal: What Contracts Actually Pay On

Iran says it reached an understanding with Oman on a Hormuz shipping route. Here is why event contracts on a strait reopening should barely move on that.

Aug 6, 2026

Iran Strike Odds: Trading Escalation on Polymarket

Reuters reports Iran threatened to hit Gulf states if the US strikes again. What that conditional threat does to escalation event contracts, and why.

Aug 5, 2026

Trump Threatens Iran Again: How Prediction Markets Price a Hormuz Deal

Trump says Iran will be hit very hard unless the Strait of Hormuz reopens. Brent fell below $80 — what it means for event contract pricing.