Iran
11 stories tagged #iran — what happened and what the prediction markets made of it.
House Votes to End Iran War, 7 Republicans Break Ranks
Seven House Republicans just voted to pull US troops out of Iran within a month.
Trump Says US Could 'Stay in Iran and Keep the Oil'
Trump floated staying in Iran to keep the oil—markets shrugged.
Iraq Closes Shalamcheh Border Crossing With Iran
Iraq shut its Shalamcheh crossing with Iran and has not said why.
Trump Says No Iran Talks; Hormuz Status Disputed
President Trump ruled out Iran talks on Tuesday. Tehran says Hormuz is shut; Trump says it's open. The conflicting claims leave oil markets pricing.
Oil Prices Jump Above $90 as US-Iran Ceasefire Expires
Brent crude rises above $90 after the US-Iran memorandum of understanding expires and Trump threatens Oman over Strait of Hormuz talks.
Trump Claims Strait of Hormuz: Energy Market Repricing
Trump says he will declare the Strait of Hormuz U.S. territory. How territorial claims shift energy-disruption contracts and conflict odds.
Pricing Iran Rhetoric: How Gas Warnings Move Markets
Donald Trump's linkage of Iran escalation to higher gas prices signals sentiment shifts. Here is how prediction markets and energy futures price this.
Iran, the Gulf, and What Escalation Contracts Pay On
The WSJ says Iran sees an opening to push US forces out of the Gulf. Here is how that headline does — and does not — touch US-Iran escalation contracts.
Hormuz Coordinates Deal: What Contracts Actually Pay On
Iran says it reached an understanding with Oman on a Hormuz shipping route. Here is why event contracts on a strait reopening should barely move on that.
Iran Strike Odds: Trading Escalation on Polymarket
Reuters reports Iran threatened to hit Gulf states if the US strikes again. What that conditional threat does to escalation event contracts, and why.