#geopolitics

Aug 18, 2026

China Plans Naval Drill with Indonesia East of Taiwan

Taiwan condemns planned Chinese-Indonesian naval exercise to its east as dangerous. What the drill location means for conflict odds.

Aug 15, 2026

Pricing Iran Rhetoric: How Gas Warnings Move Markets

Donald Trump's linkage of Iran escalation to higher gas prices signals sentiment shifts. Here is how prediction markets and energy futures price this.

Aug 5, 2026

Trump Threatens Iran Again: How Prediction Markets Price a Hormuz Deal

Trump says Iran will be hit very hard unless the Strait of Hormuz reopens. Brent fell below $80 — what it means for event contract pricing.