#geopolitics
China Plans Naval Drill with Indonesia East of Taiwan
Taiwan condemns planned Chinese-Indonesian naval exercise to its east as dangerous. What the drill location means for conflict odds.
Pricing Iran Rhetoric: How Gas Warnings Move Markets
Donald Trump's linkage of Iran escalation to higher gas prices signals sentiment shifts. Here is how prediction markets and energy futures price this.
Trump Threatens Iran Again: How Prediction Markets Price a Hormuz Deal
Trump says Iran will be hit very hard unless the Strait of Hormuz reopens. Brent fell below $80 — what it means for event contract pricing.