Polymarket
12 stories tagged #polymarket — what happened and what the prediction markets made of it.
Ohio Senate Polls Tighten: Brown and Acton Lead
The Hill reports slim Democratic leads in two Ohio Senate races. How tight polling moves Senate control contracts on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Trump Claims Strait of Hormuz: Energy Market Repricing
Trump says he will declare the Strait of Hormuz U.S. territory. How territorial claims shift energy-disruption contracts and conflict odds.
Lindell Loses Minnesota Primary: Market Pricing Shifts
Mike Lindell’s Minnesota primary loss forces prediction markets to reprice the Trump endorsement premium. See how contracts adjust to primary upsets.
Maine Senate: The Gender Gap and the Odds
NPR says women voters could decide Maine's Senate race. Here is what a demographic story does — and does not do — to prediction-market prices on the contest.
Democrats Win Texas? One Quote, No Live Prices
A former GOP strategist says "this might be the year" Democrats win Texas. Here's what a prediction market would need to see before a Texas contract moves.
Mississippi and What Senate Control Markets Price
Scott Colom says he can flip Mississippi. Here's how a widening Senate map feeds into majority contracts on Polymarket and Kalshi — and where the.
Reading Incursion Odds After the NATO Intel Leak
A leaked U.S. intelligence assessment says Putin could test NATO with a limited incursion. How event contracts price that, and why resolution language.
Tennessee Primary Night: The Prediction-Market Guide to Tonight's Results
Tennessee picks gubernatorial nominees and candidates in nine redrawn districts. How to think about nominee-versus-general contract pricing on a night like this.
Collins Defects on Blanche: Reading a Confirmation Market One Vote at a Time
Susan Collins will vote against Todd Blanche for attorney general, leaving Republicans one defection from failure. How confirmation markets price a whip count.
Trump Threatens Iran Again: How Prediction Markets Price a Hormuz Deal
Trump says Iran will be hit very hard unless the Strait of Hormuz reopens. Brent fell below $80 — what it means for event contract pricing.
Washington's 3rd District Just Got Harder to Price
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez and John Braun advanced from Washington's jungle primary. Why a mainstream GOP nominee changes district pricing and House majority odds.