#conflict-odds

Aug 19, 2026

Trump Says No Iran Talks; Hormuz Status Disputed

President Trump ruled out Iran talks on Tuesday. Tehran says Hormuz is shut; Trump says it's open. The conflicting claims leave oil markets pricing.

Aug 16, 2026

Trump Claims Strait of Hormuz: Energy Market Repricing

Trump says he will declare the Strait of Hormuz U.S. territory. How territorial claims shift energy-disruption contracts and conflict odds.