Conflict odds

2 stories tagged #conflict-odds — what happened and what the prediction markets made of it.

News · Aug 19, 2026 · ☰ 7 min

Trump Says No Iran Talks; Hormuz Status Disputed

President Trump ruled out Iran talks on Tuesday. Tehran says Hormuz is shut; Trump says it's open. The conflicting claims leave oil markets pricing.

Analysis · Aug 16, 2026 · ▶ 30 s ☰ 6 min

Trump Claims Strait of Hormuz: Energy Market Repricing

Trump says he will declare the Strait of Hormuz U.S. territory. How territorial claims shift energy-disruption contracts and conflict odds.

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